This inexplicable overnight explosion in a critical voter category, coupled with the overall increase in electors’ data marked for deletion from 35 lakh to 56 lakh in the same period (July 14 to July 23, 2025), unless the contrary proved.

A skyrocketing surge in just 24 hours

The initial phase of the SIR, as reported by the ECI on July 14, indicated that out of Bihar’s total 7,89,69,844 electors, enumeration forms from 6,60,67,208 individuals, or 83.66%, had been successfully collected. At that juncture, the ECI had identified specific categories for deletion, 1.59% of electors were found to be deceased, 2.2% had permanently shifted residence, and 0.73% were identified as having multiple entries. This initial accounting suggested that approximately 88.18% of the electorate was either verified or categorised for deletion based on these criteria.

The figures emerging from the SIR are indeed startling, particularly the overnight jump in “untraceable electors.”

However, subsequent data releases unveiled a concerning volatility. On July 22, the ECI reported 11,484 “untraceable electors.” In an astonishing and unexplained leap, this figure surged to a staggering 100,000 by July 23 – an astronomical increase of approximately 809% within a mere 24 hours. This sudden surge in a highly problematic category of voters has become a central point of contention, raising serious questions about the methodologies and consistency of data collection and classification during the SIR.

Furthermore, the overall number of electors marked for deletion also witnessed a significant escalation. On July 22, with voter coverage reportedly at 97.30%, the count of electors flagged for deletion stood at 52 lakh (5.2 million). Yet, by July 23, with coverage marginally increasing to 98.01%, this figure jumped to 56 lakh (5.6 million). This implies that an additional 3 lakh (300,000) voters were identified for deletion in just a single day.

The sheer magnitude and rapid rate of these proposed deletions, particularly in the final stages of the revision, are fuelling a suspicion that the SIR may extend beyond a routine clean-up, potentially impacting the democratic rights of a significant portion of Bihar’s electorate.

The ECI’s justification and the underlying concerns

The Election Commission of India (ECI) is currently undertaking a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, its first in 22 years, which it defends as crucial for maintaining the “purity of elections.” This exercise aims to remove deceased voters, permanent migrants, and duplicate entries, with ECI data as of July 23 showing 56 lakh electors identified for deletion.

Questions of timing and documentary requirements

However, this SIR has ignited a firestorm of criticism from opposition parties and civil society groups, who allege it’s a politically motivated attempt to disenfranchise marginalised communities. Their concerns are multi-layered, beginning with the highly suspect timing of the SIR just months before the Bihar assembly elections, which critics argue should have been conducted well in advance to avoid any perception of impropriety.

ALARMING DISCREPANCIES

Two glaring red flags have emerged from the Special Intensive Revision of the voter list in Bihar:

On 22nd July, the number of untraceable electors stood at 11,484. By 23rd July, that number suddenly exploded to 1 LAKH
At 88.18% voter… pic.twitter.com/3icF2UkZZt

— All India Trinamool Congress (@AITCofficial) July 24, 2025

Furthermore, the methodology and documentary requirements have drawn fire; despite the ECI’s claim that Aadhaar, voter ID, and ration cards are not mandatory, their limited use for identity verification raises worries for poor and migrant workers who often lack readily available official documentation. This also shifts the burden of proof onto individual citizens, a challenging process for those with limited literacy or resources, issues currently being heard by the Supreme Court.

Opposition may boycott Bihar poll, says Tejashwi Yadav

In a stunning declaration Thursday, July 24, RJD leader, Tejaswi Yadav again alleged the Election Commission is for “working at the behest of BJP and ruling NDA” and might boycott the polls after taking feedback from people and alliance partners. Dramatically, he, the Leader of the Opposition in the Bihar Assembly, Tejashwi Yadav, has indicated that Opposition parties might boycott upcoming State Assembly elections in Bihar after taking feedback from people and our alliance partners, reports The Hindu.

“We will see what people want and what our allies say. If the state polls are conducted in a partial and manipulative manner where it is already decided who would win what number of seats, what is the use of conducting such an election? We may consider boycotting the upcoming state assembly elections in Bihar after taking feedback from people and our (alliance) partners”, Mr Yadav, who is from the Opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal, told a news agency on Wednesday (July 23, 2025).

Earlier in the day on July 23, there was a verbal duel between ruling NDA and Opposition mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) legislators on the third day of monsoon session of the Bihar Assembly over the issue of Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral roll in the State. Thereafter, while addressing media persons, Mr. Yadav alleged the Election Commission for “working at the behest of BJP and ruling NDA” and claimed that “the possibility of deletion of 50-80 lakh voters from the voter list is alarming”.

“If we have so many deletions from the voters list, it is clear that there would be 3,000-4,000 names of voters who would be struck off from the electoral roll on each booth of the state and this is the conspiracy of the NDA to get favourable results in the poll,” alleged Mr. Yadav.

“If they (NDA) want to win elections through fraudulent means, then what is the point in conducting elections? Chunav mat karwao (don’t hold the elections),” he quipped while speaking to the reporters.

“We’ll consult our (alliance) partners and people before taking a final decision on this (boycotting the poll),” he added.

The Indian National Congress (INC), an ally also came out in support of RJD on the issue. “Yes, we’ll seriously discuss the issue (of boycotting the poll)… we could join any form of protest. If voters are denied their franchise, what remains in a democratic set-up of the country?” asked senior state Congress leader and legislator party leader in the State Assembly, Shakeel Ahmad Khan.

The ruling party (JD-U) leader and party spokesperson Neeraj Kumar, however, slammed Mr. Yadav for the “poll boycott threat”. “His (poll) boycott threat shows sheer desperation and hopelessness. Has he (Mr Yadav) forgotten that the people of the state had limited his party (RJD) to just four seats in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2024?”, said Mr. Kumar.

The Opposition mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) leaders are expected to “take a final call on poll boycott in days to come”, the other leaders of mahagathbandhan told The Hindu over a phone call.

“Possibly, after the ongoing monsoon session of the state legislature, which is scheduled to be concluded tomorrow on July 25,” said one of the senior Left party leaders while seeking anonymity. The three Left Parties — the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPM) and the Communist Party of India-Marxists-Leninist (CPI-ML) — are part of the Opposition mahagathbandhan in the State.

The State Assembly elections in Bihar are due in October-November later this year.

Bihar’s SIR: Impractical deadlines and opaque deletions

The remarkably short deadline for form submission, July 25, 2025, is deemed impractical, especially for Bihar’s significant migrant population, with 15 lakh voters yet to submit forms, risking the exclusion of legitimate voters due to logistical hurdles or lack of awareness, despite online and WhatsApp options. Finally, deep concerns persist regarding the opacity of the deletion process itself. The sheer volume of proposed deletions and limited time for verification, even with lists shared with political party-nominated Booth Level Agents, raise serious doubts about the thoroughness and fairness of the process, fuelling fears of erroneous deletions that could disproportionately impact specific demographic groups.

ECI’s stance on voter IDs and citizenship verification in court

he ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Bihar’s electoral rolls has been further complicated by the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) recent affidavit to the Supreme Court. Filed on July 21, 2025, the ECI, through Deputy Election Commissioner Sanjay Kumar, stated that Electoral Photo Identity Cards (EPICs/Voter IDs) cannot be considered primary documents for new entries, categorising the SIR as a “de novo revision process.” While acknowledging Aadhaar’s utility for identification, the ECI reiterated it’s not a standalone proof of eligibility or citizenship. Furthermore, the ECI defended its right to verify citizenship, citing its constitutional mandate under Article 326 and Sections 16 and 19 of the Representation of the People Act, 1950, to ensure only citizens are registered.

Divergence from Supreme Court’s concern and ground realities

This stance directly challenges the Supreme Court’s July 10, 2025, observation that EPICs, Aadhaar, and ration cards should be considered valid. The ECI justified excluding ration cards due to “widespread prevalence of fraudulent cards.”

This significant deletion rate, coupled with the ECI’s stringent documentary requirements and its assertion of citizenship verification powers, has fuelled concerns from opposition parties and civil society about potential widespread disenfranchisement, particularly of marginalised sections. Many reports have also reported ground-level procedural flaws. The next Supreme Court hearing on July 28, 2025, will be crucial in addressing these contentious issues.

Related

ECI to SC: Voter ID insufficient for Bihar roll, defends citizenship verification power

SC: ECI’s ‘wisdom’ on revision of electoral rolls challenged, does a disenfranchisement crisis loom over Bihar, with thousands being declared ‘‘D’ (doubtful) voters?

Bihar:  SC signals that ECI should consider Aadhaar, EPIC (Voter ID card) & Ration card for electoral roll revision 

The post Bihar’s untraceable electors spiral by 809% in just one day, ECI reports 1 lakh ‘missing’, 15 lakh Bihar voters yet to submit forms appeared first on SabrangIndia.

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav shared footage of police misbehaving with voters at booth 318. In the Kundarki constituency, SP candidate Hazi Rizwan lodged complaints of police misconduct, alleging voter intimidation and physical assault on polling agents. Additionally, voters in Kanpur’s Sisamau Assembly constituency reported being forcibly stopped by police.

In response to the Yadav’s X post and allegation sparked surfaced on social media against the Police personnel, Police Commissionerate Kanpur Naga informed Akhilesh Yadav around 1 p.m. that, “The tweet has been acknowledged. The concerned sub-inspectors have been suspended, and all personnel have been instructed to ensure full compliance with the election process.”

ट्वीट का संज्ञान लिया गया है। संबंधित उपनिरीक्षकगण को निलंबित कर दिया गया है एवं सभी को चुनाव प्रक्रिया का पूर्ण पालन सुनिश्चित करने हेतु निर्देशित किया गया है। @Uppolice @DMKanpur

— POLICE COMMISSIONERATE KANPUR NAGAR (@kanpurnagarpol) November 20, 2024

Interestingly, the alert and assertive behaviour by the opposition Samajwadi Party also drew a similar response from the Moradabad Police

.@DMMoradabad एव #SSP_MoradabadPolice @satpal_IPS द्वारा कुंदरकी विधानसभा उप-निर्वाचन में ज्यादा से ज्यादा मतदान करने हेतु मतदताओ से अपील की गयी तथा प्राप्त शिकायतो के आधार पर कर्मियो के विरुद्ध आवश्यक कार्यवाही की जा रही है। उक्त संबंध मे @DMMoradabad एवं #SSP मुरादाबाद की बाईट। pic.twitter.com/bZKnxytjzu

— MORADABAD POLICE (@moradabadpolice) November 20, 2024

Meerapur Assembly Constituency (UP)

At 9:22 AM on Wednesday, the Samajwadi Party (SP) raised serious concerns regarding the ongoing by-polls in Uttar Pradesh’s Muzaffarnagar district, specifically in the Meerapur Assembly Constituency. Through its official X (formerly Twitter) handle, the party claimed that police officers were obstructing voters at booths 178 and 179 in Kithoda, within the Meerapur assembly constituency. According to the party, voters were being prevented from casting their ballots, despite having valid voting slips and ID cards.

The party called on the Election Commission to intervene, urging it to take immediate action to ensure a free and fair voting process. The allegations add to growing concerns of electoral irregularities as voting continues in the region.

मुजफ्फरनगर की मीरापुर विधानसभा के किथोड़ा में बूथ संख्या 178, 179 पर पुलिस द्वारा मतदाताओं को वोट डालने से रोका जा रहा है।

संज्ञान ले चुनाव आयोग, निष्पक्ष मतदान सुनिश्चित हो।@ecisveep @ceoup @DmMuzaffarnagar pic.twitter.com/u9QUq2Pov1

— Samajwadi Party (@samajwadiparty) November 20, 2024

However, multiple videos circulating on the social media platform X show that Muslim voters were and are being prevented from casting their votes. In the footage, voters can be seen holding their voting slips and ID cards, but police personnel are reportedly blocking their access to the polling booths.

चुनाव आयोग @ECISVEEP @ceoup धृतराष्ट्र नहीं बल्कि बेईमान है ,चुनावी युद्ध में कौरवों की तरफ यानी भाजपा की पक्षधरी कर रहा

भाजपा चुनाव आयोग से बेईमानी करवा रही और चुनाव आयोग बेईमानी कर रहा ,अब भी किसी को कोई शक है क्या कि चुनाव निष्पक्ष होंगे ? ये बेईमानी साजिश नाकाम होगी एक दिन… pic.twitter.com/OVWIzPTRVo

— SamajwadiPartyMediaCell (@MediaCellSP) November 20, 2024

SP Kundarki candidate Moh. Rizwan confronts police over voter checks

In Kundarki, Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party candidate Hazi Rizwan confronted police officers who were checking voter IDs and slips at a barricade near a polling booth. Rizwan also lodged a complaint with the Election Commission, alleging police misconduct, including assaulting polling agents and obstructing voters, particularly in Milak Sikri.

In #UttarPradesh‘s #Moradabad, #SamajwadiParty candidate #HaziRizwan confronting cops over latter checking voting slips and IDs of voters at a police barricade put up ahead of the polling booth.

Polling underway at a total of 9 UP seats including #Kundarki in Moradabad. pic.twitter.com/F3Diyg6sm1

— Hate Detector (@HateDetectors) November 20, 2024

Rizwan also complained to the Election Commission of India (ECI), alleging that police personnel are physically assaulting their polling agents in the area. The candidate claims that the police’s actions are aimed at disrupting the election process and intimidating the party’s agents during the polling.

Kundarki SP candidate Mohammed Rizwan complains to ECI that police is beating their polling agents in Kundarki.

SP’s Ramgopal Yadav is claiming that BJP is winning seats only due to intimidation tactics in UP bypolls.

— News Arena India (@NewsArenaIndia) November 20, 2024

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Haji Mohd Rizwan (@mohdrizwanmla)

SP candidate Rizwan has raised the allegations of police misconduct during the ongoing by-polls, particularly at village Milak Sikri, where polling booths 306 and 307 in the Kundarki assembly constituency are located.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Haji Mohd Rizwan (@mohdrizwanmla)

Shockingly, voters in Kundarki have alleged that polling booth officials are asking them which party they voted for. Those pressing the Samajwadi Party’s cycle button claim they are being treated rudely by the administration and, in some cases, are being denied the right to vote altogether.

UP में आज 9 सीटों पर उपचुनाव हैं
ये तस्वीरें कुंदरकी विधानसभा की हैं
वोटरों का आरोप है कि पर्ची होने के बाद भी उन्हें वोट नहीं डालने दिया जा रहा है…
⁦@SpokespersonECI⁩ ⁦@TheRedMike⁩ #UPBypolls pic.twitter.com/VdPJONBN1E

— Saurabh shukla (@Saurabh_Unmute) November 20, 2024

Rizwan claimed that SP supporters and other voters were subjected to extreme police atrocities, with reports of intimidation and obstruction. According to the candidate, the local administration was actively preventing and threatening Samajwadi Party supporters from exercising their right to vote.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Haji Mohd Rizwan (@mohdrizwanmla)

Sishamau Assembly Constituency (UP)

Also, reports from Kanpur’s Sishamau Assembly constituency, particularly in Chamnaganj Ward 107, alleged that voters are being forcibly prevented by the police and administration from casting their votes.

कानपुर सीसामऊ विधानसभा चमनगंज वार्ड 107 वोटरों को जबरन पुलिस प्रशासन वोट नहीं डालने दे रही है वापस भेज दे रही है #UPByelection2024#UPByPoll pic.twitter.com/1coqYLFthi

— Gyan Prakash Yadav #INDIA (@Gyanpra65533145) November 20, 2024

SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav questions ECI over the allegation

SP Chief and MP Akhilesh Yadav strongly criticised the Election Commission (ECI) for its failure to prevent electoral irregularities during the ongoing by-elections. He demanded that the ECI ensure that the administration does not discourage voters. He emphasised that if the Election Commission truly exists to uphold democratic processes, it should intervene immediately to prevent the police from unnecessarily checking voter IDs, blocking roads, or seizing voter IDs. He expressed concern about voters being threatened with jail for possessing legitimate IDs, calling such actions an act of intimidation aimed at suppressing votes.

Yadav further criticized the slowdown of the voting process and urged the ECI to take immediate action to speed up the process, extend voting hours if necessary, and prevent the waste of voters’ time. He condemned the administration for not staying neutral and representing the government’s power, instead acting in favour of certain parties. He also demanded that real-time action be taken against corrupt officials, ensuring that any electoral malpractice captured on video is addressed swiftly.

अगर निर्वाचन आयोग का कोई जीता-जागता अस्तित्व है तो वो जीवंत होकर, प्रशासन के द्वारा वोटिंग को हतोत्साहित करने के लिए तुरंत सुनिश्चित करे:

– लोगों की आईडी पुलिस चेक न करे।
– ⁠रास्ते बंद न किये जाएं।
– ⁠वोटर्स के आईडी ज़ब्त न किये जाएं।
– ⁠असली आईडी को नक़ली आईडी बताकर जेल… pic.twitter.com/4Qddtlgc19

— Akhilesh Yadav (@yadavakhilesh) November 20, 2024

Kanpur Commissionerate orders suspension of police personnel who stopped voters

In response to the Yadav’s X post and allegation sparked surfaced on social media against the Police personnel, Police Commissionerate Kanpur Naga informed the Akhilesh Yadav that, “The tweet has been acknowledged. The concerned sub-inspectors have been suspended, and all personnel have been instructed to ensure full compliance with the election process.”

ट्वीट का संज्ञान लिया गया है। संबंधित उपनिरीक्षकगण को निलंबित कर दिया गया है एवं सभी को चुनाव प्रक्रिया का पूर्ण पालन सुनिश्चित करने हेतु निर्देशित किया गया है। @Uppolice @DMKanpur

— POLICE COMMISSIONERATE KANPUR NAGAR (@kanpurnagarpol) November 20, 2024

Related:

Vote for Democracy (VFD) releases report on the conduct of General Election 2024

Counting of votes and post-counting remedies to the victim candidates of a tainted election process

ECI faces ire over lack of transparency and discrepancy in poll data, the poll body dismisses the allegations in a detailed response

The post UP by-elections: Reports of serious disturbances and disruption of voters appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Furthermore, a closer look at the BJP’s campaign reveals that they have publicly seem to have used fear tactics and at times, even direct threats to the public. 

In 2022, Citizens for Justice and Peace had similarly noted notorious hate offender T Raja Singh, MLA from the Goshamahal Assembly of Hyderabad, Telangana, threatening voters to vote for the BJP, and those who would not would be subjected to ‘Yogi ji’s’ bulldozers, “To those who do not vote for Bharatiya Janata Party, I want to tell them that Yogi ji has ordered JCBs and bulldozers in thousands. These have already left for Uttar Pradesh. After the election, the areas of each person who did not support Yogi ji will be identified. ”

Jammu

In Jammu, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has accused BJP leaders of attempting to threaten residents in the Poonch region. Tagging the Election Commission of India, the PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti took to X to talk about the issue.

Is this why BJP wants to defer the Anantnag – Rajouri election so that its leaders can openly threaten violence against Paharis to force them to vote for Apni party or else they will create communal tensions reminiscent of the 1947 partition? @ECISVEEP should take note & ensure… pic.twitter.com/VXZQs4Syll

— Mehbooba Mufti (@MehboobaMufti) April 30, 2024

The Hindu reported that the spokesman from the PDP, the party has filed a written complaint with the Anantnag RO, reporting instances of criminal intimidation by BJP leaders in Rajouri and Poonch. They claim BJP leaders are pressuring people, particularly Pahari Muslims, to vote for the Apni Party, warning of consequences akin to those faced in 1947 if they refuse.

The party has sent a written complaint to the Returning Officer (RO) of Anantnag, accusing the party leaders of intimidating Pahari residents in the Rajouri-Poonch area to vote for Altaf Bukhari’s J&K Apni Party, as per a report in The Hindu. The latest news from Anantnag remains that the elections have now been postponed. PDP party workers were seen protesting against the move on May 1st.

On Wednesday, @jkpdp stages protest against the rescheduling of elections for the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat by the Election Commission of India, rallying party members to voice their dissent.@MehboobaMufti @Suhail_Bukhari pic.twitter.com/N1QU0BirF2

— Kashmir News Bureau (KNB) (@KNBKashmir) May 1, 2024

Assam

In Assam, BJP MLA and MP candidate Bijoy Malakar was campaigning for BJP candidate Kripanath Mallah in Karimganj and was seen making threats to voters. Karimganj hosts a Muslim population of about 56%, as per the 2011 Census of India.

An MLA from the Ratabari constituency in Karimganj district, Bijoy Malakar promised evictions from their homes of people who don’t vote for the BJP.

Assam #BJP MLA #VijayMallakar threatens people with bulldozer action if they don’t vote for his party.

The legislator from #Ratabari made these remarks while campaigning for BJP MP candidate #KripanathMallah.#LokSabaElections2024 pic.twitter.com/rOQktFzGgw

— Hate Detector (@HateDetectors) April 17, 2024

After the Congress party filed a complaint to the police, Malakar reportedly made the statement that the videos of him making the threats were doctored.

Similarly, Assam also witnessed forest officials demanding people to vote for the BJP in Karimganj. Nine forest officials from the Assam Forest Department, including senior official MK Yadava who is the special chief secretary have been accused of intimidating voters in Karimganj. The officials reportedly did this to support BJP candidate Kripanath Mallah as Karimganj went to polls on April 26.

Local news outlet Borok Times reported that the locals of the Butukusi village have written a petition in Karimganj against MK Yadava and other forest officials, asking for an investigation into these alleged activities of intimidation in elections.

The petition has reportedly written about multiple such incidents across multiple villages, where officials made visits with armed police and forest guards who reportedly threatened residents with eviction unless they voted for the BJP candidate. The accused officials were also said to have made the use of offensive language as they asked the people to vote for the BJP.

Gujarat

News has arrived that BJP’s polling agents in Gujarat have reportedly violate the Model Code of Conduct in Gujarat by using pens that were laced with BJP’s symbols. The Congress party has lodged a complaint to the ECI in this regard. The party has also complained, in a separate complaint to the election commission, that polling agents of the BJP were found threatening voters and telling them if they did not vote for the BJP then they will not be allowed to vote or enter the voting area, as per a report in the Indian Express.

Related:

Assam sees final day of polling after break-neck campaign unleashed by parties

Mathura records Muslim votes missing, is this the first time?

Displaced and denied the right to fish, Muslim fishermen in Gujarat now prevented from voting

Reports from UP’s Sambhal claim that several members of the Muslim community prevented from exercising their vote

Urban Naxal to Amit Shah, AAP Bharuch candidate tops ADR Gujarat criminal cases list

The post Elections 2024: Threats, intimidation coercion of voters by BJP reps, even government officials all India appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Hundreds of voters, particularly Muslims and Dalits, in Bengaluru’s Shivajinagar constituency could fall off the voters’ list with the Election Commision initiating action against them on the basis of a “complaint by BJP activists”. Described by the Opposition, Indian National Congress (INC) as malicious and communally motivated, this complaint was made in October 2022 and alleged that 26,000 fake voters had been identified as either shifted out or dead in the constituency. Currently Rizwan Arshad is the sitting MLA from the Shivajinagar constituency of the capital Begaluru. BJP is pushing for thousands of voters to be deleted in a Muslim-dominated Bengaluru area

Election authorities reportedly got active in January 2024, when the final voters’ list was being prepared, and issued notices to 9,159 voters. This has been viewed as a violation of the SOPs laid down by the ECI on September 13, 2021, which said that suo motu deletions cannot be made in the last six months of an Assembly.

The SOP is prescribed in order to avoid last-minute chaos before polls, which could erode voters’ faith in the process. But in the case of Shivajinagar, the ECI has sought refuge in a rather obsolete clause which allows deletions under ‘special circumstances’. “How is a complaint filed by a political party, that too with a bunch of names, a special circumstance?” asked MG Devasahayam, retired IAS officer and chairman of the NGO, People-First.

The Shivajinagar constituency, in the heart of Bengaluru, has around 1.91 lakh voters, 40% of whom are Muslims. The constituency has been represented by a Congress MLA since 2008. The controversy this time round started with a private complaint filed by BJP sympathisers in October 2022 listing out 26,000 voters. Electoral rolls are not easy to come by and the leak of these names has become a matter of speculation.

The final electoral roll for Shivajinagar constituency was published on January 15, 2023. This is when the BJP directly got into the Shivajinagar slugfest. Eight days after the electoral roll was published, the BJP went to the Election Commission demanding that the 26,000 names mentioned in the private complaint should be removed. The party followed it up with a writ petition in the Karnataka High Court on February 1. The Congress immediately accused the party of trying to vitiate the atmosphere by choosing to take these actions well after the final electoral rolls were published.

Chief Electoral Officer of Karnataka Manoj Kumar Meena told TNM that election officials cross checked all 26,000 names and found that 9,159 had either shifted out of their old homes or died. Accordingly, two notices were issued to hundreds of people between January 10 and February 15 asking them to appear before the election authorities. The notices said that if they don’t appear before the Electoral Registration Office on the given date and time, their names will be deleted from the electoral list.

The News Minute (TNM) has in a detailed report today raised the question of whether a timeline of this exercise throws up several questions, including whether a complaint filed at the last minute by any party can vitiate an election process.

“Why were these notices sent after the final rolls were published? The complaint was filed in October 2022; if the CEO wanted to take action, why was it not done before? Rules mandate that Form 7 has to be filled if anyone wants to raise an objection and delete a name in the existing electoral roll. Did the BJP fill 26,000 Form 7s? If they didn’t, why did the CEO’s office accept their complaint? Anyone can raise a complaint like this,” MG Devasahayam, retired IAS officer told the media. Incidentally, he is a co-petitioner in the Supreme Court in a PIL challenging the rule that allows the deletion of voters without intimation.

The Electoral Registration Office confirmed to TNM that the BJP did not fill any Form 7. Despite this, both the CEO and elections officials at the BBMP maintain that the complaint by the BJP makes out a ‘special circumstance’. “We cannot ignore the complaint,” said Meena. A ground visit by TNM revealed gaping holes in the Election Commission’s narrative that all 9,159 names were verified by Booth Level Officers.

(Report based on The India Cable and on ground reporting by Newsminute)

Related:

Voters say they were denied voting rights, allege police brutality: Rampur (UP) By polls

Why did it take an order from the Tripura HC to ensure proper enrollment of Bru voters?

Aadhaar linking to Voter ID: Empowering voters or enabling surveillance?

The post Anti-BJP, ‘inconvenient’ voters in Bengaluru could be dis-enfranchised: Karnataka polls appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The elections to Rampur, in a by-election, a populous constituency in Uttar Pradesh that has a significant population of Muslims were mired in controversy as social media users took to Twitter to allege a denial of voting rights through the (ab)use of force by the police. Some media outlets showed visuals of a woman in a video can also be seen showing another woman’s wounded hand allegedly as a result of police brutality. The woman can be heard saying that a wounded elderly woman had gone out to cast their vote, however, to her surprise, the authorities allegedly attacked the elderly woman with lathis and denied her the right to vote. The woman in this video can also be seen showing her voter ID and Aadhar card which are valid documents for one to cast their votes.

This video, which has come to light from Uttar Pradesh’s by-election bound Rampur where the voters can be heard alleging that the police have denied them their right to vote and have also assaulted them in from trying to go to the election booth to vote.

Tweets

Voters in Rampur, Uttar Pradesh alleged that Police in the area has hijacked the polling booths. Voters has also alleged that its party workers were being thrown out of booths and were being prevented from voting.

Voters in Rampur, Uttar Pradesh alleged that Police in the area has hijacked the poling booths.
Voters has also alleged that its party workers were being thrown out of booths and were being prevented from voting. pic.twitter.com/lzJORN97qf

— Ghazala Ahmad (@ghazalaahmad5) December 5, 2022

#चुनाव_आयोग संज्ञान ले लोगो को वोट नहीं डालने दिया जा रहा हैं इसी तरह की खबरें और जगहों से भी आ रही है रामपुर 37विधनसभा

#चुनाव_आयोग संज्ञान ले
लोगो को वोट नहीं डालने दिया जा रहा हैं
इसी तरह की खबरें और जगहों से भी आ रही है
रामपुर 37विधनसभा#RampurByElection @yadavakhilesh pic.twitter.com/cOHvHyp4nC

— M S Alam Nadwi (@sahibealamnadwi) December 5, 2022

बीजेपी को अगर चुनाव ही जीतना था तो चुनाव कराने की जरूरत क्या थी वैसे भी जीता जा सकता है । #rampur #ByElections2022@SpokespersonECI

बीजेपी को अगर चुनाव ही जीतना था तो चुनाव कराने की जरूरत क्या थी वैसे भी जीता जा सकता है ।#rampur #ByElections2022 @SpokespersonECI pic.twitter.com/t1Zazxmm5J

— praveen yadav noida (@praveennoida63) December 5, 2022

#SamajwadiParty के एक प्रतिनिधिमंडल ने लखनऊ में चुनाव आयोग कार्यालय पहुंचकर उपचुनाव में कथित धांधली को लेकर आपत्ति दर्ज कराई। प्रतिनिधिमंडल का आरोप है कि #Police की मदद से #Rampur और #Mainpuri में लोगों को वोट डालने से रोका जा रहा है।

#SamajwadiParty के एक प्रतिनिधिमंडल ने लखनऊ में चुनाव आयोग कार्यालय पहुंचकर उपचुनाव में कथित धांधली को लेकर आपत्ति दर्ज कराई। प्रतिनिधिमंडल का आरोप है कि #Police की मदद से #Rampur और #Mainpuri में लोगों को वोट डालने से रोका जा रहा है। pic.twitter.com/ecjpXoE4gT

— UP Tak (@UPTakOfficial) December 5, 2022

They don’t even allow casting of votes in Rampur. Beating up of people started y’day. SSP there is the one who was removed from Firozabad on my complaint during polls. This SSP was there the last time too & even now. There is nobody to listen but public is supreme: SP MP RG Yadav
 

They don’t even allow casting of votes in Rampur. Beating up of people started y’day. SSP there is the one who was removed from Firozabad on my complaint during polls. This SSP was there the last time too & even now. There is nobody to listen but public is supreme: SP MP RG Yadav pic.twitter.com/yBVjm6kmZy

— ANI (@ANI) December 5, 2022

Silence from the ECI Twitter Handle 

The Election Commission of India (ECI) twitter handle has, so far been non-responsive to these allegations. All the tweets on the handle are replete with celebratory tweets from constituencies in Gujarat and one or two in Rajasthan. Gujarat has completed its second phase of poling for the state assembly today.

Three places in Uttar Pradesh will be holding elections for the seat of Rampur, Khatauli and Mainpuri on Monday. From one of the by election bound places, Rampur, a video has come to light in which a Muslim woman along with more people can be seen telling the camera that the police have been denying and turning away the voters.

Rampur by-elections

These by-elections for the Rampur constituency seat were scheduled to be held on 5 December after they necessitated after the disqualification of SP MLA Azam Khan. The two parties who are looking horns for the Rampur seat are BJP and Samajwadi Party.

BJP has fielded Former Party MLA Shiv Bahadur Saxena’s son Akash Saxena for the Rampur seat whereas BJP counterpart in Rampur, Samajwadi Party has fielded former MLA Azam Khan’s close aide Asim Raza. The result of the by election will be released on December 8.

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The post Voters say they were denied voting rights, allege police brutality: Rampur (UP) By polls appeared first on SabrangIndia.

On Monday, February 14, voting for Assembly Elections took place in Uttar Pradesh (second phase), Uttarakhand next door and in Goa. At the time of publishing this piece, final polling figures were not available, but many places recorded impressive voter turnouts, pointing perhaps to the anti-incumbency factor.

Take for example Haridwar, where calls for genocide were given at a Dharm Sansad in December 2021. As per the election commission, by 5 PM on the day of polling, 67.58 percent of eligible voters had cast their votes in this region. High voter turnout was also recorded in two other places in Uttarakhand, namely – Udham Singh Nagar (65.13 percent) and Nainital (63.12 percent). The state has already seen a revolving door of chief ministers, and now it remains to be seen if the electorate has rejected the politics of hate. The overall voter turnout in the state stood at 59.37 percent.

उत्तराखण्ड विधानसभा सामान्य निर्वाचन- 2022
सायं 5 बजे तक प्रदेश के सभी 13 जनपदों में औसत मतदान प्रतिशत।#UttarakhandElections2022 @ECISVEEP pic.twitter.com/8yRmWs8856

— CEO Uttarakhand (@UttarakhandCEO) February 14, 2022

Next door in Uttar Pradesh, incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath once again put his foot in his mouth by making communal comments in an interview to ANI. Once again speaking about Muslims as the ‘other’, the UP CM used terms like ‘Ghazwa-e-Hind’, ‘religious fanatics’ of ‘Talibani thinking’, liberally. He said, “India will run according to the Constitution, not according to Shariat.” At 5 P.M, overall voter turnout in the state was recorded at 60.44 percent. But it is important to note that the voter turnout was higher than average in communally and caste sensitive areas.

Saharanpur saw a voter turnout of 67.13 percent, while 66.19 percent in Amroha. Moradabad recorded 64.88 percent, while Bijnaur stood at 61.48 percent. All these places have been in the news over the last five years for communal and caste-based violence, and a high voter turnout perhaps indicates that people have had enough.

उत्तर प्रदेश विधानसभा सामान्य निर्वाचन-2022

दूसरे चरण के अंतर्गत 09 जनपदों में सायं 05 बजे तक कुल औसतन मतदान 60.44% रहा#ECI#विधानसभाचुनाव2022#AssemblyElections2022 #GoVote #GoVoteUP #GoVoteUP_Phase2 pic.twitter.com/g9qlCPcnWE

— CEO UP #DeshKaMahaTyohar (@ceoup) February 14, 2022

Meanwhile, the tiny western Indian state of Goa, which is often viewed as nothing more than a vacation destination due to its world-famous sea-beaches, showed an impressive turnout of 75.20 percent! The state has a large population of Christians and has been a hotbed of Hindutva activity due to the presence of several right-wing groups that have built a base in the state.

Additionally, there have been concerns about the impact of mining activity on the state’s fragile ecology, as well as the flourishing onshore and offshore casinos. The incumbent BJP is facing competition from not only the Congress but also the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) that hopes to open its account outside West Bengal for the first time.

Sanquelim recorded an impressive voter turnout of 88.o7 percent, followed by Sanguem at 84.61 percent, Priol at 84.5 percent, and Bicholim at 83.54 percent. In fact, the lowest voter turnout was recorded at Siolim, but even that was an impressive 68 percent.

Update: Voters turn out at 5 pm across Goa – 75.29%.#AssemblyElections2022 #Goa pic.twitter.com/uGDSm2jaQO

— CEO Goa (@CEO_Goa) February 14, 2022

Related:

UP CM Adityanath targeting minorities again?
Uttarakhand CM Pushkar Singh Dhami’s UCC talk, a sign of pre-poll jitters?

The post Assembly elections: Over 67 percent voter turnout in Haridwar, Saharanpur appeared first on SabrangIndia.

In the appeal, the signatories have urged the voters to vote to defend the idea of India and save our Constitution.

The letter reads, “We appeal to all the people of India, our dear brothers and sisters, to use your power as citizens and as caring human beings to defend our Constitution, and nurture the very idea of India. Please, pause and think, before you vote.”

Though they haven’t directly targeted the current ruling dispensation, which is infamous for its divisive politics and politics of polarisation, they have expressed their concerns about the anti-democratic forces posing a threat on our founding principles of diversity, equality and the separation of religion from politics, in the current times.

Recently there was another appeal made by 600 artists in 12 languages from across the country to the voters to vote ‘bigotry, hatred and apathy out of power’. This included prominent names like Naseeruddin Shah, AnuragKashyap, RatnaPathak Shah, GirishKarnad, AmolPalekar, ShantaGokhale among others. Also, 107 artists from the Marathi creative industry appealed the public to consider the last five years before casting their votes. The signatories were national-award winning authors and literary writers such as writer BhalchandraNemade, playwright Mahesh Elkunchwar, film director ArunKhopkar among others.
The right-wing supremacist Hindutva party BJP has had a flickering relationship with the creative industry. While politically motivated and controversial appointments of chairman, CBFC and Director, FTII antagonised the creative professionals, films like ‘PM NarendraModi’ held the PM in high regards.

The current government’s nasty strategy of labelling the dissenters as ‘anti-nationals’ or ‘Pro-Pakistan’ is not hidden anymore. Despite the threats of drawing the ire of ‘nationalists’, such valiant efforts by eminent personalities gives a ray of hope to save our democratic structure.
 
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The post Vote to Defend Our Constitution: Appeal by Bollywood Actors and Writers appeared first on SabrangIndia.

The BJP IT Cell, headed by Amit Malviya, has enrolled thousands of volunteers to ensure that Modi’s message is being reached all across the nation.

Shivam Shanker Singh, a whistleblower and an ex-member of the BJP IT Cell has revealed the ‘modus operandi’ of the cell. He has accused the Hindu right-wing party of manipulating the voters merely on the basis of emotions and nationalist appeals. He says that a dedicated team collects personal data of the voters (through the electoral roll), analyses them and then adds them to specific WhatsApp groups based on their caste, religion, age-group, local issues and  prejudices. Further, Mr. Singh has exposed the BJP’s polarisation attempts to create a Hindu-Muslim divide by sending across specific messages through such public platforms.

The possibility of performing such large scale activities poses serious questions on the credibility and reliability of our data protection laws.

Recently, there had been reports of Mr. Malviya editing politician and psephologist Yogendra Yadav’s speech to make it appear as a communal speech catering to the Muslim population. Later, Yadav rebuffed the allegations by tweeting a link to the entire video which revealed that it was from 2018 when he was addressing a crowd in Kolgaon, Haryana in the aftermath of the lynching of Rakhbar Khan in Alwar, Rajasthan.

Another investigative report by Journalist Samrath Bansal has revealed that the BJP-sponsored NaMo app is spreading misinformation. A report by the Alt News has shown a pro-BJP account, The India Eye, promotes fake news on social media and the NaMo App. Further, the ruling party and its members have spent the highest on political advertisements especially on Facebook. A report by HuffPost India has confirmed that the BJP has hired a Jaipur-based private company, Sarv Webs Pvt. Ltd, to push its political propaganda through mass messages on WhatsApp.

Brushing aside all allegations of giving misinformation to sway the voters, Bihar’s BJP IT Cell head, Manish Pandey, in an interview to Al Jazeera, said, “Our product is Modi; anyone can sell this product on the streets. You don’t have to open a special showroom for it. Modi is a well known brand, a huge product.” He further added, “There are over 50,000 whatsapp groups that we maintain officially. There are facts that the print media may not be able to convey to the people, then there are some media outlets that don’t like us, so they don’t convey our view. So we convey our own message through social media and our volunteers.”  However, such groups are infamous for disseminating misinformation and provoking sectarian tensions.

Reportedly, Facebook has removed 687 pages and accounts linked to individuals of the Congress IT Cell and 15 pro-BJP pages and accounts. Further, around $39,000 has been spent on advertisements by the Congress-connected pages while $79,000 was spent on advertisements by Silver Touch, a Ahmedabad-based IT firm which has developed various projects for the BJP government including the NaMo App. Recently, twitter also deleted two controversial tweets from Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s handle after the Election Commission issued a notice to the micro-blogging site. It even deleted the tweets of Union Minister Giriraj Singh, Shiromani Akali Dal MLA Manjinder Singh Sirsa and BJP’s IT cell head Amit Malviya, among others, as they violated the model code of conduct.

With the fight for power intensifying, politicians are trying all means possible to influence the voters even if that requires spreading of fake news or falsely implicating the opposition. The BJP leads this race!
 

The post Threat to Indian Democracy as the BJP Continues to Use Social Media Platforms to Influence Voters appeared first on SabrangIndia.

 
The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) commissioned perhaps the largest ever Voter Survey in any country. The survey was conducted between October 2018 and December 2018, prior to the General Elections to the Lok Sabha 2019. It covered 534 Lok Sabha constituencies with 2,73,487 voters participating in this exercise spread among various demographics. The three main objectives of this survey were to identify the following: (i) voters’ priorities on specific governance issues, (ii) voters’ ratings of the government’s performance on those issues, and (iii) factors affecting voting behaviour.

The survey highlights the voters’ priorities on 31 listed issues like drinking water, electricity, roads, food, education, healthcare, public transport etc. in their respective regions in terms of its capacity, governance and specific role in improving their living conditions. For assessing this, voters were asked to list their top five priorities. These voters’ priorities were further analyzed in relation to the performance of the Government on those issues as perceived by the voters. A three-level scale of Good, Average and Bad was used, where Good was given weightage equal to 5, Average was weighted 3 and Bad was weighted as 1.
 
The Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) commissioned a survey of members of the eligible electorate—citizens who are of 18 years and above—during October to December 2018 in order to ascertain voters’ priorities on specific governance issues, their perception  of the government’s performance on those issues and also to identify the factors that are influencing  voting behaviour. The other objectives of the survey were to assess eligible voters’ – expectations from the government, opinion regarding criminal candidates contesting in elections, exposure to inducements for the vote, level of awareness regarding the role of crime and money in elections, and general attitudes regarding the electoral process in a democracy.
 
Of the 2,73,487 voters selected for the sample, 64.88% were men and 35.12% were women. 65.28% of respondents were between 18 and 40 years of age. 64.84% of respondents were from rural locations while 35.16% were from urban India.
 
All throughout the survey – at all India level, across states and across various categories – Better Employment Opportunities and Better Health Care, remain amongst the topmost voters’ priorities. Also, these two voters’ priorities have continued to remain at the top at all India level since 2017. It is a matter of great concern that the voters have rated the performance of the government on all 31 listed governance issues as Below Average.
 
97.86% voters felt that candidates with criminal background should not be in Parliament or State Assembly, nevertheless, there were  35.89% voters who were willing to vote for a candidate with criminal records if the candidate has done good work in the past.
 
In the conclusion of this survey, it was stated that over the last two years, governments in power, both at the Centre and state/UT level, have neglected voters’ priorities. This is conspicuous in the poor and the underwhelming performance of a majority of governments across states/UTs on top governance issues as rated by their respective voters.
 
Key Findings
 
Table 2: All India Importance of Top 10 Governance Issues  
 
Graph 1: Top 10 Voters’ Priorities and Performance Scores in India   
 
It is quite clear from the top 10 Voters’ Priorities that Indian voters prioritize employment and basic amenities (like Healthcare, Drinking Water, Better Roads etc.) above all governance issues (including Terrorism and Strong Defence/Military). This indisputably is a result of prevailing governance deficit in these sectors that are causing deprivation to the average Indian voter besides also leading to the denial of their fundamental rights like Right to live with human dignity as embodied in the Article-21 of the Constitution. For inclusive and equitable development, it is important that the government ensures that such basic services reach all sections of the society, as it is key to developing human capabilities.
 
“The government’s performance score on the top 10 voters’ priorities is below average. This evidently indicates that the voters are unsatisfied with the government’s performance. Hence, the government needs to prioritise and invest more particularly in these sectors. On Better Employment Opportunities, which is the top most voters’ priority, the performance of the government has been rated as one of the worst (2.15 on a scale of 5)” the survey found.

The graph below shows ranking of governance issues, as per voters’ priorities. 

The graph below shows the performance of the government on governance issues, as rated by the
voters.

Voters’ priorities and government’s performance

• As per All India Survey 2018, Better Employment Opportunities (46.80%), Better Health Care (34.60%) and Drinking Water (30.50%) are the top three voters’ priorities at the all India level, followed by Better Roads (28.34%) and Better Public Transport (27.35%) at the fourth and the fifth place, respectively.
• It is important to note that agricultural related governance issues featured predominantly in the all India top 10 voters’ priorities e.g. Availability of Water for Agriculture (26.40%) that was ranked sixth, Agriculture Loan Availability (25.62%) that was ranked seventh, Higher Price Realization for Farm Products (25.41%) that was ranked eighth, and Agriculture Subsidy for Seeds/Fertilisers (25.06%) that was ranked ninth.
• The other top two voters’ priorities, Better Healthcare (2.35) and Drinking Water (2.52) were also rated as below average. Better Healthcare was ranked seventh and Drinking Water was ranked third.
• It is a matter of serious concern that for none of the 31 listed voters’ priorities, the performance of the government was rated as average or above average.
• The worst performance of the government, as rated by the voters, was on the issues of Encroachment of Public Lands, Lakes etc., Terrorism, Training for Jobs, Strong Defence/Military, Eradication of Corruption, Lower Food Prices for Consumers and Mining/Quarrying.
• The comparative analysis between All India Mid-Term Survey 2017 and All India Survey 2018 reveals that the top two voters’ priorities (Better Employment Opportunities and Better Hospitals/Primary Healthcare Centres) have continued to remain at the top.
• The significance of Better Employment Opportunities as voter’s highest priority has increased by 56.67% from 30% in 2017 to 47% in 2018. At the same time, the performance of the government on this issue declined from 3.17 to 2.15 on a scale of 5.
• The significance of Better Hospitals/Primary Healthcare Centres as voter’s second highest priority has increased by 40% from 25% in 2017 to 35% in 2018. At the same time, the performance of the government on this issue declined from 3.36 to 2.35. 
• The significance of Drinking Water as voters’ priority has increased by 150% from 12% in 2017 to 30% in 2018. At the same time, the performance of the government on this issue declined from 2.79 to 2.52.
• The significance of Better Roads as voter’s priority has increased by 100% from 14% in 2017 to 28% in 2018. At the same time, the performance of the government on this issue declined from 3.1 to 2.41.
• Amongst the 32 states and UTs that were surveyed, in 29 of them, voters have given below average ratings to the government for its performance on all top 3 voters’ priorities at the state level. This is with the exception of Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu and Puducherry.
• Out of all the 8 Empowered Action Group (EAG) states, which are considered as most socio-economically backward, in 7 states (Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh) Better Employment Opportunities is the foremost voters’ priority.
• Drinking Water is the topmost voters’ priority in 3 States/UTs like Odisha, Karnataka and Daman and Diu. 

Voting behaviour
 

• As per All India Survey 2018, 75.11% voters disclosed that CM candidate was the most important reason behind voting for a particular candidate, followed by candidate’s party (71.32%) and the candidate (68.03%) himself/herself.
• It is distressing to see that for 41.34% voters, distribution of cash, liquor, gifts etc. was an important factor behind voting a particular candidate in an election.
• In relation to voting candidates with criminal antecedents, a maximum number of voters (36.67%) felt that people vote for such candidates because they are unaware of his/her criminal records. 35.89% of voters are also willing to vote for a candidate with criminal records if the candidate has done good work in the past.
• Although 97.86%of voters felt that candidates with criminal background should not be in Parliament or State Assembly, only 35.20%of voters knew that they could get information on criminal records of the candidates. 

 
Men and women while having many common priorities also gave a sneak peek into what both of them want the government to improve. Women voters prioritised primary healthcare, hospitals, agriculture loan availability, drinking water, electricity for domestic use, better public transport, school education more than Male voters.

All India Male vs. Female Voters’ Priorities

 

“We believe that the assessment report can be an important tool in engendering improvements within all institutions in refining their own institutional practices and developing better oversight of other bodies. We hope the report will be instrumental in starting a coordinated effort to work together to ensure the most efficient use of resources to serve the nation as a whole. Please find a link to the report on our website,” they said in a statement. They also added that a detailed State-wise survey reports will be released before the scheduled polling dates of respective states.
 
“This effort over 10 years supplements the work that ADR has done since 1999 for better elections and for political party reforms. ADR has always stayed away from partisan politics and works for the empowerment of the ‘common’ voter. As part of that work, we put out candidates’ data before elections so that voters can make an informed choice. ADR also raises voter awareness through nationwide Election Watch Campaigns. Many of them are in regional languages and are carried out directly in rural areas. The youth have also responded favourably to these efforts and many have joined as volunteers, as have a wide network of non-political, non-partisan organizations. ADR also strategically works with the Courts and the Right to Information Act to try and bring about some much-needed changes in our system and raise public awareness on crucial issues like election funding, political party funding and so on,” Prof. Trilochan Sastry, IIM Bangalore, Founder-Chairman, ADR said in the survey.
 

The post Indian voters are unhappy with below average governance: ADR survey appeared first on SabrangIndia.

Young voters take a selfie after casting votes at a polling booth in Kolkata.

How India’s young population votes will clearly be one of the deciding factors in the forthcoming 2019 general elections ending the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) five-year rule. This was also the case in the 2014 general elections when 24 million new voters had joined the country’s electorate.

After the previous general election in May 2014, IndiaSpend had analysed how states with the highest proportion of young people had voted. Youth had catapulted the BJP to power in the five states with the highest proportion of young voters, we found.

Issues relating to the youth, education and jobs, are therefore likely to take centrestage in this election. These are both areas in need of more resources and attention in India: A pre-budget analysis by IndiaSpend established the need for more funds for higher education and better implementation of skill development schemes. Since 2000, India’s spending on higher education has been 0.73%-0.87% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and this fell to 0.62% in 2015. Enrolment for the Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (prime minister’s skill development programme) was found to be 64% short of the target set, FactChecker.in reported in January 2019.  

Employment will likely be the biggest issue for the young vote bank and even in the absence of latest official data on jobs, political parties cannot afford to ignore it in their manifestos. The leaked report of the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) on employment data had shown that unemployment had reached a 45-year high at 6.1%. The government had countered that increased income tax returns filed and a leap in provident fund accounts showed a rise in jobs.

Who is a ‘young’ Indian?

The share of youth in India’s population had reached its maximum in 2010–35.11%, according to NSSO’s 2017 ‘Youth in India’ report. This was an estimated rise of 4.2 percentage points rise since 1971 (30.6%), from 168 million to 423 million, according to the report.
The population from adolescence to middle age is defined as ‘youth’. But definitions can vary across policy agencies. The United Nations research reports typically categorise the 15- to 24-year age group as youth. The National Youth Policy in India (2003) defined youth as those between 13 and 35 years of age.

Later, the National Youth Policy 2014 re-defined this age group as 15-29 years. The NSSO 68th round settled on 15-29 years for labour force participation statistics. In the latest NSSO report on youth released in 2017, the bracket went up to 15-34 years of age. Changing definitions of ‘youth’ in subsequent reports and policy outlays makes it difficult to compare data across years and age-groups.
Since the latest report on employment statistics is yet to be officially released, for the purposes of our analysis, we use the data from the NSSO’s 2017 ‘Youth In India’ report. Citing 2011-12 data, this report put around 55% of men and 18% women in the 15-29 age-group in rural India in the labour force. In urban areas, the figures stood at 56% for men and 13% for women.

Five states with most young voters

The five Indian states that added the highest number of new voters are also among the states with the maximum seats in the Lok Sabha and rank high in terms of population. Lok Sabha seats are assigned to states in proportion to the population of the state and states with larger population hold the key to landing a majority in it, as IndiaSpend reported here and here.
 

Source: Election Commission of India, Lok Sabha

Of all Lok Sabha members, 43% will be elected from the top five states that added the highest number of new voters: Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. In four of these five states–West Bengal voted for the Trinamool Congress–the incumbent BJP was the top party in the previous Lok Sabha elections.

Source: Election Commission of India

Note: Vote shares of parties do not add up to 100 because only seat-winning parties are included in the list.

After its big 2014 win, BJP also won the Maharashtra state elections. The alliance between Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) won the assembly elections in Bihar in 2015 but it was a short-lived partnership. The state continued to be ruled by the JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar after the RJD walked out. Bihar’s political parties have started calculating the likely permutations for the Mahagatbandhan (grand alliance of parties) for the soon-to-be-declared Lok Sabha polls in 2019.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha with a 43% vote share and 71 seats, and it won the state elections in 2017. The Samajwadi Party, under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav, and the Bahujan Samaj Party under Mayawati have formed an alliance to fight the BJP in the state for the 2019 general elections. The BJP won all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan in 2014 but lost to the Congress in the state assembly polls in December 2018.

In West Bengal, the BJP managed to gain a 17%  vote share in the 2014 general assembly elections though the party won only two seats. It is now set for a battle with the Trinamool Congress in the 2019 national elections.

In a first-past-the-post system, where the candidate (or party) with the highest vote share wins the seat, a swing of a few hundred votes can sometimes affect election results. With a strength of 13% new voters in states such as Bihar, young voters can decide election outcomes. Here is why: The Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) has only a 7% vote share in the state, but won six seats. Whereas JD(U) and RJD won fewer seats in the Lok Sabha (2 and 4 seats, respectively), their vote shares were much higher than LJP’s. JD(U) had 16% and RJD 21% vote share which they managed to convert to seat-share in the state assembly polls, as IndiaSpend reported November 2015.

Why states that added most young voters are critical for parties

Our analysis shows that political parties can, by concentrating on the top five states that have added the highest number of new voters, potentially increase their chances to win more seats in the Lok Sabha. These states are also among the most populous in India and any party or coalition winning more seats here can form the government at the Centre, as IndiaSpend reported in May 2016.

Of the total Lok Sabha seats, 211 (37%) come from the top ten states that have added the highest proportion of new voters to the electoral roll since the last general election of 2014.
 

Source: Election Commission of India, Lok Sabha

Note: Union territories and smaller states that send one or two members to the Lok Sabha have not been considered for this analysis.

Skill development, higher education opportunities and jobs are going to be priority issues from states with highest shares of young population. Parties have started working out vote share-seat share calculations in their alliances as the youth wait for parties to declare their complete manifestos.

(Tewari is a PhD Scholar at the School of Development Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences, Mumbai, and an IndiaSpend contributor.)

Courtesy: India Spend

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