Among the three states in Northeast India, Tripura’s election generated the most interest. Because the Left Front and Congress had formed an alliance and fought against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Observers were watching to see how this alliance would fare in the state, whether it would be able to defeat the BJP.
They could not defeat the BJP. In the initial analysis within 48 hours of the declaration of results in the state, two of the reasons for the Congress-Left Front are looming large. Many in Tripura consider these two factors to be one of the most influential factors in the outcome. Of these two, the first is the absence of one in the Tripura elections, and the second is the overwhelming presence of the other. Before going into the analysis of these two issues, let’s take a look at the statistical aspect.
Both the main parties BJP and CPI(M) (Communist Party of India—Marxist) have lost both votes and seats compared to the last 2018 elections in Tripura state. On the other hand, Congress has gained little. And Tipra Motha, the new party of Pradyot Devavarman, son of the royal family, had made incredible gains and rise. Before moving on to Tipra, let’s look at the loss of BJP and CPI(M).
In 2018, the BJP’s 36 seats and 43.5 percent vote share have reduced by four seats to 32 seats and a little less than 39 percent vote share. This time, in addition to reducing their four seats, the vote has decreased by 4 and a half percent. Their ally, the tribal party Indigenous Front of Tripura (IPFT), saw its vote fall by 6 percent and its seats from 8 to 1. It is clear that the people of Tripura have voted against the establishment i.e. BJP. That is why BJP got only 1 seat as opposed to the required 31 seats to get a majority.
There are various explanations for the BJP’s poor performance—from the administrative negligence and disorganisation of previous Chief Minister Biplap Kumar Dev to deep corruption and factionalism. Due to the many controversies surrounding the revolution, it seemed that the Left-Congress alliance had a good chance of winning. But they could not turn that possibility into votes.
On the other hand, the votes of the CPI(M) dropped from 42 percent to 24 percent in 2018. The Left Front’s vote dropped from 44 percent to 26.16 percent. Senior journalist Jayant Bhattacharya felt that the 2016 West Bengal elections will be repeated in Tripura state in 2023.
In West Bengal, Seva’s Left Front and Congress agreed on seats. The results of the election show that the votes of CPI(M) have decreased by 10 percent compared to 2011. On the other hand, Congress votes increased by almost 4 percent.
In Tripura too, it is seen that the votes of the left parties have decreased but the votes of the Congress have increased. Congress vote has increased from 1.80 (2018) to 8.5 percent. Five years ago the Congress won no seats in the state assembly, this time it won three seats. Like West Bengal, the votes of the Left went to the Congress, but the votes of the Congress did not go to the Left, but went to the BJP.
How did the alliance work?
Journalist Jayant Bhattacharya was saying that even when this alliance survey did not work in West Bengal, questions would arise within the party as to why an alliance was formed in Tripura in the same manner.
Another senior journalist and editor of Tripura, Pradeep Dutta Bhowmik, also roughly agrees with Jayant’s statement. He said, “it goes without saying that the coalition did not work in this election. If you analyse seat by seat, it can be said more specifically whether the two parties have been able to ‘transfer’ the votes of one to the other or not.”
The Left Front’s organisational weakness in conducting elections, taking decisions based on actual conditions, implementing those decisions on the ground, lack of money – put the Left Front and Congress in danger. Of course, there is no denying that in Indian politics these words are easy to say, but finding solutions to problems is a difficult task. Especially the Left Front and the Congress—both parties who are the Center and the states are nowhere in power.
However, the vote was not ‘transferred’, Congress and Left Front leaders-activists-supporters do not fully agree with this statement. Their statements are different. They think that the vote has been ‘transferred’, but it may not have been as smooth as it should have been.
Rahul Gandhi did not come to campaign in Tripura. This enabled the BJP to label the Left-Congress alliance as an ‘immoral’ alliance. Even the top Congress leadership did not issue a statement asking for support. A senior journalist of a left-wing newspaper in Tripura said, “Everyone knows that Congress means the Gandhi family.” But when they finally did not come or even give a statement, it naturally favoured the BJP.
After the end of the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra‘ in January, Rahul Gandhi took a long vacation. He shared the picture on Twitter in mid-February, just in time for the Tripura elections. In the picture, he was seen playing in snow with sister Priyanka Gandhi on the streets of Gulmarg in Kashmir. BJP spread these pictures all over India for the benefit of social media. The picture was also spread in the constituency state of Tripura.
And Rahul was in the UK when the election results were out. He was giving a speech on Indian democracy. But when the democratic process was going on in Northeast India, he did not set foot there – this is a regret among the leaders and workers of his party.
A top leader of the Tripura state Congress said that even if Rahul Gandhi had campaigned, he would have been blamed if the alliance lost. However, a section of the state Congress leadership has a different view. As another leader said, “Narendra Modi has come twice in a row right before the elections. BJP’s top leadership, including Amit Shah, have repeatedly visited and stayed in the state, campaigned and seen the work of the organisation. A section of the top leadership of the Left Front also campaigned in the state. But Rahul Gandhi did not come. No matter how you explain it, in the end it will be a fact.”
Congress leaders and workers alleged that by sending young leaders like Mukul Wasnik or Alka Lambad, who are completely unknown to Tripura, Rahul Gandhi has given a clear indication that he and the Congress do not value elections in Northeast India.
In other words, the most important political leader of the Gandhi family has recently become an electoral issue within a party in three states of Northeast India including Tripura.
Wide spread campaign of the Tipra Motha
Pradyot Devavarman, the most important member of the Tripura royal family and Rahul’s friend, became an issue by being present all the time. In his sickness, he ploughed almost all over the state, campaigning. Now it is being said that BJP has won because of his vigorous campaigning and fielding candidates in 42 out of 60 seats in the state.
Out of 60 seats in Tripura, 20 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 10 for Scheduled Tribes. Remaining 30 seats are open for all. Out of the 13 seats won by the Tipra Motha party, its candidates won 12 seats reserved for tribals.
People who keep a close eye on the politics of Tripura say that the anti-BJP vote (i.e. alliance vote) would not have been slashed if Pradyot Devbarman had not fielded one candidate each in 40 constituencies. Even in seats reserved for sub-castes, there is a 10-30 percent tribal vote. They voted for Tipra Motha instead of the Left-Congress alliance. It appears that Tipra got more votes than the Left-Congress alliance in at least 15 seats.
According to Jayant Bhattacharya, “it is generally believed that the CPI(M) has a lot of votes among the tribal community. Tipra got this vote in the reserved seats. There, the tribal votes of the CPI(M) also went to them. But the alliance is in jeopardy as the vote of the tribals in sub-caste areas went to Tipra instead of CPI(M). BJP has benefited from this.”
Jayant Bhattacharya also gives an example. He said that the state secretary Jitendra Chowdhury Joy is the candidate of CPI(M) party in Sabroom constituency of South Tripura. There are several thousand tribal votes in that centre. But Tipra did not put a candidate there. As a result, Chowdhury won by 400 votes in that seat. The Left Front leadership seems to have gotten it wrong. Before the elections, they thought that BJP would lose votes to Tipra. After the declaration of results, it was seen that Tipra has benefited the BJP by cutting the votes of the Left Front.
In a multi-party democracy, any party has the right to nominate candidates for any seat. So you can nominate any seat like Tipra. But like Jitendra Chowdhury told us before the elections, “it would have been better to have an alliance with Tipra Motha.” Leaders-supporters of the Left-Congress alliance are realising the importance of Chowdhury’s speech after the announcement of the election results.
BJP has won the required seats in this election, alone. In this situation, the Left Front and Congress members will have to sit on the opposition bench in the Legislative Assembly for another five years.
The Left-Congress leaders understand that it will not be easy to stand against Narendra Modi in India and BJP in Tripura in the next phase of 2024. Standing in Agartala after the elections, they admitted that the opportunity that came before them due to the disorganisation and internal conflicts of the BJP, may not come in the 2028 assembly elections. Because parties like BJP will learn from past mistakes and change themselves.
Presumably, the prospective Chief Minister Manik Saha will not repeat the mistakes of his predecessor Biplab Dev. In that case, in Tripura as in other states, the work of the opposition will be tougher in the coming days. Massive backlash against the opposition has already started in Tripura.
To survive the fight in this situation, the whole country, especially West Bengal, will be watching what policies the Left Front will adopt. Even after an era of losing power in this state, CPI(M) and the Left Front have not found a solid ground under their feet.
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