Who orchestrated APPs failures, the FM and her ex-FS or the ECI?

In the recently concluded NCT Delhi State Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party has performed, euphemistically, a hat trick.  The BJP has bagged 48 seats out of a total of 70 seats contested by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) though two of its allies JD (U) and LJP (RV) of Chirag Paswan lost the two seats they contested. There is admittedly jubilation among BJP workers given that they were able to make a come-back after 27 years of being out of power in Delhi state, not, withstanding the Modi Magic or its spectacular performance in the previous three Lok Sabha Elections. In the first blush of victory one cannot but get impressed by the performance of the NDA. However, in order to analyse the outcome and the factors responsible for the huge shift and change in voter behaviour, we need also to study all aspects of the polls. This analysis needs to happen on the basis of facts and all available independent data, a significant amount of which is apparently devoid of bias in as much as the same is the outcome of the routine statistical exercises within departments.

For instance, we need to consider the following factors:

• Performance of the AAP Government,
• Perception of corruption by the AAP,
• Controversy over the official bungalow of Arvind Kejriwal,
• Pollution in Delhi,
• Kejriwal’s failure to protect minority
• Loss of even partial status of the Delhi State given the powers handed by central diktat to the LG, incumbency and the urge for a change,
• Failure to strike alliance between AAP and INC,
• Kejriwal labelling Rahul Gandhi as amongst three corrupt leaders and
• Yamuna water being unfit for consumption
• Selective deletion and addition of electors between the notification of elections on January 7, 2025 and the final electoral roll issued thereafter, on January 17, 2025. The increase was a substantial 76,366 electors in the 10 day period, from 1,55,37,634 to 1,56,14000.
• The EVM, Factor and other alleged election malpractices.

And/or

• Huge income tax relief announced in budget up-to INR 1,13000, and more,
• Landing of deported ones at Amritsar, Punjab rather than that at the Indira Gandhi airport New

The picture of the repeatedly altered register of voters has ensured a mind-boggling impact. This factor has emerged despite the fact that a special summary revision of electoral rolls with reference to the qualifying date of January 1, 2025 was started in all the constituencies. The Draft Electoral Roll had been published on October 29, 2024 and prominently displayed at all places inviting objections by November 28, 2024. This Draft Electoral Roll contained 1,53,57,529

Electors.The registered electors shown in the press release by the CEO at the time depicted 1,47,97,990 electors for the 2020 Assembly, as per the summary of electors posted by the Election Commission of India (ECI) on its web page on Assembly Elections of NCT Delhi 2020. Thereafter on Jan 06, 2025 17:02 hours IST, the ECI released the final electoral roll of Delhi which showed that the national capital has a total 1,55,24,858 voters, 83,49,645 male and 71,73,952 female voters, third gender 1,261.

• Registered Electors in NCT Delhi for Assembly Elections 2020 = 1,47,97,990
• Registered Electors, finally shown in NCT Delhi in Lok Sabha elections 2024 = 1,52,14,638
• Jan 06, 2025 17:02 IST, Registered Electors Summary revision ECI = 1,55,24,858

(Male 83,49,645 Female 71,73,952 , Third Gender 1261 Total 1,55,24,858)

• Elections notified on January 7, 2025, Total Registered electors (ECI) = 1,55,37,634
• ELECTORS AS ON 01.2025 (CEO NCT DELHI) = 1,56,14000

Issue of Electoral Rolls

The repeated and substantial alterations of registered voters by the ECI itself makes the exercise cloudy. The absence of any credible explanation as well as deviation from the norm also shatters the confidence of the electors because of an absence of any degree of fairness. Even under the amended section 14 of the Representation of Peoples Act 1950, the date of eligibility for the registration of electors is January 1, April 1, July 1, and Oct 1 of each year and in the present case of Delhi for the February 2025 elections it is January 1, 2025 under amended section 14 ibid. Since the process had begun on October 29, 2024, but the revised rolls were published only by January 7, 2025 the date of notification should have not resulted in any hike/ injection of electors 10 days thereafter (76366 voters were added as has been explained above). There have been allegations of the unauthorised deletion of names and addition of voters, hence, given that the ECI is a constitutional body owing accountability to the people of India, it is bound under the Constitution and the law to place details regarding the entire process related to the inclusion of new voters, including the documents therein, in the public domain.

Besides, a duty is cast upon the ECI to explain how: a) 13,145 electors got inducted in the voter’s list of the Badli constituency; b) 16,413 electors got inducted into the list of the Nangloi Jat constituency c)17,549 electors got inducted into the list of the in Mundika constituency; d) 7,387 into the lists of the Shahdra constituency; e) 24,759 voters into the lists of the Burari assembly constituency; f) 18,404 added into the list of the Bawana constituency; g) 8,638 voters added into the list of the Vikaspuri constituency and, h) 2,209 votes added into the New Delhi constituency. These examples are illustrations and other constituencies too saw such an increase between the Lok Sabha elections held in Delhi on May 25, 2024 and the NCT assembly elections held on February 5. 2025.

The YouTube news channel run by journalist, Ajit Anjum (@AjitAnjumOfficial ) has made public the study conducted by it on the gross irregularities into the voter registration process that includes the registering of multiple electors at addresses of (six) –in large part—representatives of the BJP!. This study related to a micro 32 addresses from which location, as many as 635 votes ranging between 15 to 44 votes per address were added! Incidentally, some of these “addresses” are even not permitted to be labelled as a residence and some are so small in size that the number of persons (whose names were registered from there) could not have been said to have been registered under:

The pattern in this study (expose) provides a clear indication that there has been a process of “bulk registration” of voters, almost as if targets were given for the exercise.[1]

Voter Turnout

The ECI has faltered, again, on the release of voter turnout data too by altering the timing of the first press release to 5 p.m. instead of 7 p.m. which is one hour after scheduled voting time. The voter turnout at 57.70% in the ECI Press release (vide No. ECI /PN/179/2024 dated February 5, 2025 as of 5.00 p.m.) Though the scheduled voting time was until 6 p.m. The voter turnout percentage was revised to 60.42% by 11.30 p.m. (vide No. ECI /PN/180/2024 dated

February 5, 2025). There was no official press release at 6 p.m. that is at the end of scheduled poll time. Incidentally, the CEO Delhi released yet another figure for voter turnout (60.54%) without mentioning any time. The total number of votes polled have been declared as 94, 51,997.

Status of votes secured by parties, winning margins of contestants and overall impact

An analysis of the votes secured by the parties and the candidates with losing and winning margins in all the 70 seats –including votes polled by the candidates of three major political players, i.e. the AAP, NDA and INC shows that AAP lost 16 seats by a margin of 10,000 votes or less and NDA lost 8 seats in this range. A further analysis also shows that the NDA also won three seats by a margin of less than 1000 votes: Sangam Vihar (344 votes) Tirlokpuri (392 votes) and Jangpura (675 votes). In another three seats, again, the margin of victory of the BJP is very slender between 1001 and 2000 votes: these are Timarpur (1168 votes), Rajinder Nagar (1231votes) and Mehrauli (1782 votes). In another three seats AAP lost by similarly small margins: Malviya Nagar (2131 votes), Greater Kailash (3188 votes), New Delhi (4089 votes), while in the remaining seven seats AAP lost by 5001-10000 votes: Shahdra (5178 votes), Chhatarpur (6239 votes), Mangolpuri (6255 votes), Hari Nagar (6632 votes), Dwarka (7829 votes), Narela (8596 votes), Palm (8952 votes). In contrast, in the seats where it emerged victorious, APP has won all seats by a margin of more than 2,000 votes.

Vote Share

Seats where the margin of loss by APP is less than the votes secured by INC

Pre-poll Opinion and Exit Polls

1. Latest Opinion Poll by Phalodi Satta Bazar: This poll conducted by Madhuri Adnal Time (updated Friday, January 31, 2025, 18:50 hours forecast AAP securing 38-40 seats and BJP an estimated 30-32
2. Gaurav Sharma, in oneindia.com  (published on Monday February 3 2025, 11:08 hours) com/new-Delhi, the opinion polls suggested that the AAP may bag 37 to 40 seats. BJP may clinch 20 to 25 seats, Congress 0 to 2 seats.
3. Hindi Khabar and Mind Brick India in its poll suggested that AAP would get 55 seats. The BJP 15 and INC none.

Conclusion: The pre poll opinion in a majority of the surveys showed that while the APP would get less seats than earlier –the number could reduce to 38-40 seats – it would still form the government while the BJP would get a respectable number of 20 to 32 seats but would not be able to get majority.

DELHI EXIT POLL NEWS 18 www.news18.com › elections › assembly Delhi Assembly Election 2025 Exit Poll Results Latest Updates …Feb 5, 2025 · Get the latest Delhi Assembly election 2025 exit poll results, predictions for Delhi elections, and AAP, BJP, Congress seat forecasts. 

Delhi Assembly elections 2025

Factors that acted as the drivers of a sudden change between January 31, and February 5, 2025

It appears obvious from the above that the scales shifted substantially by the time the exit polls were conducted. Almost all the polls showed the BJP get a thumping majority, on its way to form the next government. AAP was predicted to be trailing behind. Scientifically, we need to therefore conclude that something major occurred between January 31 and February 5 to tilt the scales so decisively.

Some factors

1. Union Budget presented on 1^st of February and FM Sitaraman claims to fill the pockets of middle class and doles out 1 lakh crore in the form of Income Tax Waiver.
2. All tax payers having an income of Rs. 12 lakh and the Salaried persons having an income of 12.75 lakh get total waiver of the income tax thus getting up-to 1.13 lakh rupees per annum as tax waiver and benefit on two rented houses and many other benefits.

Impact of the Income Tax Waiver on Delhi electors

(Income Tax Revenue in Accounting Year 2023-2024)

Significantly, 62.21% of from the Rs.16,63,686.47 crore income tax revenue, during AY 2023-24, came from the three states of Maharashtra 6,05,268.35 crore, NCT Delhi 2,21,522.20 crore and Karnatka 2,08,168.88 crore.

The income tax paid by NCT Delhi turns out to be 13.32% of the total income tax from whole of India. Out of Rs. One lakh crore doled out by the FM by income tax relief, the amount for NCR Delhi totals Rs. 13,315 crore per year.

Income Tax returns filed during 2023-2024

During the financial year 2022-23, in NCT Delhi, 37,06,999 persons filed income tax returns out of which 12,25,820 are the beneficiaries of the income tax relief doled out by the Finance Minister on February 1, 2025. The ECI has stayed mum on the announcement of this dole In the budget four days before the scheduled election. It appears apparent that votes have been lured by this significant dole out. Out of the total beneficiaries, even if 20% of the voters tilted towards the BJP, more than the present win was assured.

This can be established if we analyse the preferences expressed by various segments of the voters in a survey conducted by C Voter that gave a general idea of the demography tilt in favour of the BJP and AAP. Published by India Today, the exit polls have predicted a victory for the BJP in Delhi India Today News Desk New Delhi, UPDATED: Feb 6, 2025 23:12 IST Written By: Prateek Chakraborty. Hence, the figures of preferences of various socio-economic, religious, gender-based, and age group preferences displayed in the C Voter survey published by India Today, strengthens this contention.

From the accompanying table it is patently clear that higher income groups have tilted to BJP especially those having income in this tax bracket. This displays an overall tilt of 50%, while those with an income of Rs. one lakh or more per month show a 54.9 and 61.1% preference for BJP while AAP has a support of only 32.7% and 25.8% respectively

Similarly there has been a greater shift of the male voter towards the BJP on this count. A total of 51.4% men have preferred the BJP whereas, on the contrary, 50.7% of women voters preferred AAP. This shows the impact of this budget announcement, again.

Since the budget has nothing for the house wives and labour has also been denied any benefit, more than 51% of these categories, i.e. housewives 51.5% and labour 51.8% have opted for AAP.

Since youth has not been given the requite hope from the budget, youngsters between 18-22 and 23-35 have preferred AAP to the tune of 46.7% and 45.4% respectively

This income tax relief is only beneficial for the employed, who come from college levels and professionals who can have start-ups and loans. Therefore, the impact of budget announcement of tax relief is manifest in these categories for BJP: 53.9% of the above high school and 54.5% professionals have preferred BJP

Another factor that has probably played a role in the dramatic last minute shift was the deliberate decision of the government of India to give permission for the landing of the first US military airplane at the Guru Ramdas International Air Port Amritsar not in Delhi. This carrier transported, in handcuffs and chains, 104 deported migrants. Of these 33each were from Gujarat and Haryana, 30 from Punjab, and three each from Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Chandigarh,

Though the numbers of deportees were highest from Gujarat and Haryana, a compliant and complicit media had begun a campaign to depict those deported as only from Punjab. There was a significant undercurrent of anti-Sikh minority bashing in the ‘Godi” media coverage. However, the chief minister of Pubjab, Bhagwant Mann announced government jobs for all the 30 deportees from Punjab. This too had its impact in NCT Delhi: 49.1% Sikhs and 63.1% Muslims preferred AAP to any other party in the polls.

Acknowledgements: The reaction of voters at pages 6,7 above have been taken from the C Voter Survey published by India Today on February 6, 2025. The income tax data has been taken from the official website of the tax authorities. The voter percentage and other voter related data has been interpreted from the website of the ECI and the CEO, Delhi.

(The author is former Dean, Punjab University Faculty of Medical Sciences)

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author’s personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Sabrangindia.

[1] The author states this because of the similarity in pattern: the same numbers of registrations getting from different locations, irrespective of the size, nature or status of place or of Residents. This is normally not possible without a connivance of the authorities and some protection from the powers that be. The Table raises the question, has the process of registration of electors been manipulated/vitiated for the injection of fake electors?

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