The 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections have not gone down well with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Its government collapsed as quickly as it was formed, after rebel Nationallist Congress Party’s (NCP) Ajit Pawar first resigned as the Deputy Chief Minister and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis resigned soon after, citing no majority, reported Dainik Bhaskar.

Once ruling over 71 percent of the population, the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now covers only around 40 percent after losing power in four big states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra.

Since the BJP’s big bang victory in 2014, its political footprint only rose. Starting with holding power only in seven state assemblies in 2014, it went on to hold power in 21 assemblies by 2018.

The credit for this was given to the Modi wave named after the PM and to BJP’s Chanakya Amit Shah, who changed the color of the political map – from patches of blues and greys in 2014 to an almost complete swipe of saffron in 2018.

In 2014, BJP ruled over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Goa and Arunachal Pradesh – directly or with alliance partners, reported India Today. Its graph grew from seven to 13 in 2015, 15 in 2016, 19 in 2017 and 21 in 2018.

In September 2018, it did not hold power only in eight of the 28 states – the ones being, Tamil Nadu (AIADMK), Kerala (LDF), Karnataka (Congress), Mizoram (Congress), Punjab (Congress), Odisha (BJD), West Bengal (TMC) and Telangana (TRS).

As of November 2019, the picture is vastly different. Even in states where it is just short of power, it has to depend on allies like in Haryana where it had to partner with the Jananayaka Janta Party to form the government and it suffered a massive blow after the debacle in Maharashtra elections, the government for which was formed by the alliance of the Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress.

Fadnavis has lost face, being abandoned by the party to save his own dignity. Amit Shah has lost the status of Chanakya after Sharad Pawar beat him at his own game. The BJP has lost another prestigious seat of power. Whether its arrogance will now be eroded and will the opposition unity rework its magic in other parts of the country remains to be seen.

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Is this a failure of the opposition in general to forge a common platform against the saffron alliance, or a particular case of political opportunism by the smaller players? In nine of the 25 seats where VBA impacted, it was the VB A candidate that was at number two. Arguably then a united opposition alliance may have swept up a more decisive win.

Of the nine seats in Maharashtra where  the AIMIMs presence helped the BJP-Shiv Sena to win, two of these, Chandivali and Kalina are in Mumbai! These are:

1. Sangola Seat
SHIV SENA: 99,464 votes
PWPI: 98,696:votes
AIMIM: 979 votes

Chandivali Seat
SHIV SENA: 85,879 Votes
INC: 85470 votes
AIMIM: 1167 votes

Nagpur Central
BJP: 75692 votes
INC: 71684 votes
AIMIM: 8565 votes

Pune Cantonment
BJP: 52160 votes
INC: 47148 votes
AIMIM: 6138 votes

Paithan
SHIV SENA: 83403 votes
 NCP: 69264 votes
 AIMIM: 17212 votes

Nanded North
SHIV SENA: 62884 votes
INC: 50778 votes
AIMIM: 41892 votes

Kamthi
BJP: 118182 votes
INC: 107066 votes
AIMIM + VBA:18946 votes

Kurla
SHIV SENA: 5049 votes
NCP: 34036 votes
AIMIM:  17349 votes

Kalina
SHIV SENA: 43319 votes
INC: 38388 votes
AIMIM: 2637 votes
 
In 25 seats, it was the VBA to turn spoiler. Though the VBA did not manage to win a single seat in the Maharashtra Assembly election out of the 235 seats they contested, in as many as 25 seats, the VBA made a crucial, decisive difference – a factor that could have potentially changed the overall result of the election as well.In 25 of the seats where the Congress/NCP candidate came second and the BJP/Sena candidate won, the margin of victory was smaller than the number of votes polled by the VBA.Of the 25 seats, the BJP ended up winning in 20 seats and the Shiv Sena in the other 5.

Could 34 seats have made a crucial difference?

The winning BJP-Sena alliance won 161 seats, and the Cong-NCP+ alliance, in the final tallystands at 102. If the saffron alliance had lost the 34 seats to the Opposition alliance, it would have been a close call:
 

• BJP-Sena: 161-34= 127
• Cong-NCP+: 102 + 34 = 136
• Others: 25

 
The, the BJP would have dropped down to 85, and the Sena to 51. The BJP-Sena alliance would have been not just way short of the majority mark of 145 in the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, and the Opposition alliance would have been just another 9 seats behind them.
 
Who then formed the government would be left to post poll machinations and not logic or arithmetic. The race to cobble together a majority would have been wide open.
 
Where did the VBA play spoiler?
 
The constituencies where the Congress candidate came second, and the margin of victory for BJP/Shiv Sena was less than the number of votes polled by VBA are:
 

1. Akola West – BJP
2. Arni – BJP
3. Ballarpur – BJP
4. Chikhli – BJP
5. Chimur – BJP
6. Dhamamgaon railway – BJP
7. Khamgaon -BJP
8. Nagpur South – BJP
9. Pune Cantonment – BJP
10. Ralegaon – BJP
11. Shivajinagar – BJP
12. Tuljapur – BJP
13. Yavatmal – BJP
14. Chandivali – Shiv Sena
15. Chembur – Shiv Sena
16. Nanded North – Shiv Sena

 
The list below if of those seats where the NCP candidate came second, and the margin of victory for BJP/Shiv Sena was less than the number of votes polled by VBA:
 

1. Chalisgaon – BJP
2. Daund – BJP
3. Georai – BJP
4. Jintur – BJP
5. Khadakwasala – BJP
6. Malshiras – BJP
7. Ulhasnagar – BJP
8. Osmanabad – Shiv Sena
9. Paithan – Shiv Sena

 
Interestingly, in Chimur, the Congress polled 77,394 votes and the BJP secured 87,146 votes. The victory margin for the BJP over the Congress was 9,752. Ambedkar’s VBA received 24,474 votes, thereby taking the Cong + VBA tally up to 1,01,868 votes, which is far higher than what the BJP polled.
 
In Akola West, the Congress received 70,669 votes, losing to the BJP by a small margin of 2,593 votes. The VBA, with 20,687 votes, secured more than the victory margin here as well.

In Daund, the NCP lost to the BJP by a mere 746 votes. The VBA polled a paltry 2,633 votes – but it was still more than the margin of 746.
 
VBA’s Disappointing Performance

The fledgling VBA, which contested its first Assembly election this time around, may have overreached by choosing to put up candidates in as many as 235 seats. In fact, the VBA is the party which contested the highest number of seats in Maharashtra.In hindsight, by contesting fewer seats and focusing the party’s energies on those specific constituencies it may have done better.
.
Though it won no seats, and came second in the following 9 constituencies.

1. Akola East
2. Akot
3. Balapur
4. Buldhana
5. Kalamnuri
6. Loha
7. Murizapur
8. Solapur City North
9. Washim

 The VBA came third or lower in 226 of the 235 seats it fought.
 

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The NOTA option is a type of protest vote. The right to vote is considered to be an extension of the Indian citizen’s freedom of expression under Article 19(1)(a). It follows that the NOTA option offersthe voter to express discontent with the candidates standingin their constituency.

The Times noted that this sharp rise can be attributed to civil frustration caused by issues such the Aarey dispute and the Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank collapse.The Borivali constituency, in particular, received 10,081 votes in favour of NOTA.

This trend was also noted in other constituencies all over Maharashtra. In Latur (Rural), but the second highest number of votes went to NOTA with 27,287 votes. In Palus-Kadegaon assembly seat, the optionreceived 20,631 votes.

In India, the NOTA option does not affect the electoral result in the constituency, i.e. even if the maximum votes are for NOTA, the candidate with maximum vote share will still be the winner. Pressing the NOTA button the voter is,therefore, saying that one is abstaining from voting.

The addition of NOTA as an option on the ballot paper and the EVM was made in 2013 on the Supreme Court’s direction in a PIL filed by the People’s Union of Civil Liberties. In thesjudgement, the Court held that not allowing a person to cast vote negatively defeats the very freedom of expression and the right to liberty. The Court further reasoned that introducing a NOTA button can increase the participation of democracy, and that the voter’sability to choose NOTA would compel the political parties to nominate a sound candidate.

Justice P. Sathasivam, former SC judge turned Governor of Kerala (first SC judge to be appointed a Governor), noted, “Democracy is all about choice. This choice can be better expressed by giving the voters an opportunity to verbalize themselves unreservedly and by imposing least restrictions on their ability to make such a choice. By providing NOTA button in the EVMs, it will accelerate the effective political participation in the present state of democratic system and the voters in fact will be empowered. We are of the considered view that in bringing out this right to cast negative vote at a time when electioneering is in full swing, it will foster the purity of the electoral process and also fulfill one of its objective, namely, wide participation of people.”

Prior to this judgement, the polling booth would only show a list of candidates. As stated in Rule 49-O of the Conduct of Election Rules, 1961, in order to exercise the right to not vote any of the standing candidate, one would be required to inform the presiding officer of this decision and have a remark made to that effect beside their name on the register along with their signature or thumb impression.This compromised the secrecy of their ballot. The Supreme Court held that this provision is violative of the constitutional freedom of expression and is ultra vires to the provision for maintaining secrecy of voting under the Representation of the People Act, 1951.

Negative voting has garnered such voting presence in India ever since. In the 2018 Karnataka assembly elections, more votes were polled for NOTA than six smaller parties. In the2018 Rajasthan elections, at least 15 constituencies polled more NOTA votes than the victory margin of the wining candidates.
 

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