The report identifies four “structural forces” that will shape the trajectory of global risks over the world across the next decade. These forces involve global warming and its consequences, secondly, the changes in the size, growth, and structure of global populations, thirdly, the developmental of advanced technologies, and fourth and lastly, the concentration of power and resources geopolitically and the shifts in this power equation. 

The report details environmental risks taken as the most important and dangerous aspect. About two-thirds of the respondents have ranked Extreme Weather as the top risk that would most likely be the cause for sparking a global crisis in 2024. The report notes that the warming phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is projected to intensify and persist until May in 2024. 

Amid these pressing global challenges, the report identifies the increasing and rising threat of misinformation and disinformation, and categorises it as the most severe global risk anticipated over the next two years. The report has highlighted the need for global cooperation and strategic measures to counteract this growing issue. Misinformation is ranked as the fifth most impactful risk over the next decade. The report further warns how the pandemic has made it a vulnerable landscape and also a fertile ground for the proliferation of misinformation and disinformation, which in turn can worsen societal and political divisions. The report highlights how in the context of 3 billion people heading to electoral polls in 2024, a list which includes India, and thus concludes that in the light of the widespread use of misinformation, this poses an even greater danger. 

The report connects misinformation strongly to, what it calls, societal polarisation. The report categories societal polarisation as a top-three risks over both the current and two-year time horizons. The report warns that as polarisation intensifies and technological risks remain unchecked and advance without any external scrutiny, the idea of ‘truth’ will face increased pressure. Additionally, societal polarisation and the economic upheaval are identified as the most interconnected risks in the global risks network by the report. Incidentally, India is marked the country most at risk to witness polarisation in society due to the rise of misinformation and false narratives in the coming year. Other countries similarly marked include El Salvador, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Romania etc. 

The report suggests that the coming decade is likely to be a period marked by heavy unpredictability as the globe will be navigating geopolitical transformations, climate shifts, demographic changes, and technological advancements. During this time, the report highlights and stresses the need for global cooperation and also urged for countries and institutions to take use of opportunities for proactive measures. The report argues that addressing these challenges with custom made strategies implemented and curated at the local level can effectively work as a damage control strategy to mitigate risks. 

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af b k. Hero of the Poor/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA

We should all take note of Sir Andrew Dilnot, Warden of Nuffield College, who said Atkinson will be remembered for his “belief that things could be done to improve the world”. The new generation has its own figurehead in the battle against inequality, of course: the economist and author of Capital in the 21st Century, Thomas Piketty. It is no accident that Piketty had worked with Atkinson.

Both would have recognised the observation in this year’s risk report that:

Pervasive corruption, short-termism and unequal distribution of the benefits of growth suggest that the capitalist economic model may not be delivering for people.

It is ironic that the maxim “some are more equal than others” was coined by George Orwell as a critique of socialism. In the UK, we have had David Cameron’s mantra of “we’re all in this together”, followed by Theresa May’s rapid rowback on a pledge to put workers on company boards, all while regional and class inequality continues to rise. Some seem to be in this more than others – or at least, some seem to be taking more out.

Heir to Atkinson? Thomas Piketty. EPA/SEBASTIAN SILVA

Risk management

Along with economic inequality and societal polarisation, intensifying environmental dangers makes up the top three trends identified by the report as shaping global developments over the next ten years.

For the first time in this global survey, all five environmental risks were ranked both high-risk and high-likelihood. Extreme weather events emerged as the single most prominent risk. Crucially, the report – which surveyed 750 experts on 30 global risks – notes that the likelihood of positive action being taken on the environment is undermined by the political fallout from rising inequality – a nice example of how social, economic, and political factors are inevitably intertwined.
The research of such issues therefore requires interdisciplinary work, and action needs to be co-ordinated, significant, and sustained.
 

Artificial intelligence

Of all the risks highlighted, the idea that we are struggling to keep pace with technological change is perhaps the most eye-catching. Of the 12 emerging technologies examined in the report, the experts involved found artificial intelligence and robotics to have the greatest potential benefits, but also the greatest potential negative effects and the greatest need for better governance.

See? AI robots are a happy, smiley thing. Chris Devers/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Excuse me if I sound despairing, but I recall my dad saying this 50 years ago, in the 1960s. The UK had by then not only invented the world’s first electronic programmable computer at Bletchley Park during the Second World War – a fact the British government kept secret for decades after – but also the world’s first intelligent robot at the University of Edinburgh in the early 1960s.

The UK government then commissioned the Lighthill Report which concluded there was no future in artificial intelligence or robotics, and funding was slashed, and the UK’s lead was lost.
 

End of history?

The warnings in the Global Risks Report are welcome. It suggests history did not end in 1989, when socialism was studiously dismantled, along with the Berlin wall, and when the Soviet Union collapsed in on itself. Capitalism may have won, but that may prove fatal. With no more competition as a social system, and no more constraints, we got capitalism unleashed.

Berlin on November 11, 1989. EPA/STR

The orgy of free market privatisation, deregulation, and globalisation led in 2009 to the world’s first recession since the 1930s; and instead of that causing a return to sanity, the frenzy continued unabashed. Ten years on from the 2007 beginnings of the global financial crash, the rich have become even richer.

In the US, between 2009 and 2012, the incomes of the top 1% grew by more than 31%, compared to less than 0.5% for the remaining 99% of the population. Tax avoidance and evasion have continued (despite being exposed by the Panama papers).

So, left to its own devices, the excesses of capitalism are, the report suggests, threatening the very system itself.
 

Where do we go from here?

Time for a mountain retreat? Davos in the snow. EPA/ALESSANDRO DELLA BELLA

One of the lessons being learned from the votes in favour of Brexit in Britain and the rise of Donald Trump in the US is that society has become more polarised geographically as well as in other ways. The UK electorate were told we were “all in this together”, and that the economy was booming. Bank of England Chief Economist Andrew Haldane reported in December that of the 12 UK regions only two were richer than before the 2007-08 financial crisis.

Any guesses? No need to hold you in suspense: it’s London and the South East. And economics commentator Aditya Chakrabortty reports that when interviewing people even in those two regions, people believed growth to be based on rising house prices and debt.

In the US, while Hilary Clinton won the popular vote, she lost the states that felt left behind, for whom Trump promised to “drain the swamp” – pointing to Washington DC and the political elite.

So, to have the effect it desires, the World Economic Forum’s report needs to be debated in working class hubs like Sunderland in the UK and Michigan in the US – not in London and Washington. And where are they planning to discuss it? Why the Swiss ski resort of Davos, of course.

Mind you, the lack of snow in the town this week might concentrate those corporate minds on the implications of climate change at the very least.

Jonathan Michie is Professor of Innovation & Knowledge Exchange, University of Oxford

Courtesy: The Conversation

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Representational picture. Image credit: Behind the Door of 104

The Swiss forum based out of Geneva has published its Global Gender Gap report for the year 2016, which analyses Gender Gap Index (GGI) of 144 countries from around the world. The GGI calculated by WEF takes into consideration four key areas to calculate relative gaps between women and men: health, education, economy and politics.

While the report cites some improvement in the rest of the areas, the most challenging gender gaps remain in the economic sphere. It states, “At the current rate of change, and given the widening economic gender gap since last year, it will not be closed for another 170 years. The economic gender gap this year has reverted back to where it stood in 2008, after a peak in 2013.”

On average, the 144 countries covered in the report have closed 96% of the gap in health outcomes between women and men, unchanged since last year, and more than 95% of the gap in educational attainment, an improvement of almost one full percentage point since last year and the highest value ever measured by the Index. However, the gaps between women and men on economic participation and political empowerment remain wide. Only 59% of the economic participation gap has been closed—a continued reversal on several years of progress and the lowest value measured by the Index since 2008—and about 23% of the political gap, continuing a trend of slow but steady improvement.

Estimating years to close gender gaps in other areas, it says, “The currently widest gender gap, in the political dimension, is also the one exhibiting the most progress, narrowing by 9% since 2006. On current trends, it could be closed within 82 years. The time to close the health gender gap remains undefined. Formally the smallest gap, it has oscillated in size with a general downward trend. Today, the gap is larger than it stood in 2006, in part due to specific issues in select countries, in particular China and India.”

India has moved up to rank 87 out of 144 countries on the GGI ranking list from last year’s 108 out of 145 countries. Its GGI is 0.683 – up from last year’s 0.664. The increase in the GGI indicates closing of the gender gap in the respective country as far as the mentioned key areas are considered.

Pakistan is ranked second last in the list with a GGI of 0.516 – better than only Yemen, whose performance, according to the report, is worst in closing the gender gap in the country. Bangladesh tops the list among the South Asian countries with a rank of 72, while China ranks 99, Nepal 101, Bhutan 121 and Sri Lanka 100 on the list by WEF.

Four Nordic countries – Iceland, Finland, Norway, and Sweden have topped the list with GGIs higher than 0.8. No country has fully closed its overall gender gap, but those in the top five, which also includes Rwanda, have closed more than 80 percent of theirs.

However, the report forecasts fastest closing of the gender gaps in South Asia with a projected period of 46 years, as opposed to 61 years for Western Europe, 72 years for Latin America and 79 years for Sub-Saharan Africa.
 

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