The organisation released a press note on 9^th May, urges that media must not misreport the study on population by EAC-PM. PFI said that such interpretations are not only inaccurate but also “Misleading” and “Baseless”. It is essential to present data accurately and contextuality, highlighting the role of education, income, and socioeconomic development in shaping demographic trends.

Share of Religious Minorities; A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015): A Study by EAC-PM

The study examined the changes in the population of majority and minority religious communities across 167 countries. In India, it said the Hindu community’s population decreased by 7.82 percent over 65 years, from 84.68 percent in 1950 to 78.06 percent in 2015. During the same time period, the share of Muslim population rose from 9.84 to 14.09 percent, the Christian population from 2.24 to 2.36 percent, and the Sikhs’ share from 1.24 to 1.85 percent over 65 years. The share of the Buddhist population also witnessed a rise, from 0.05 percent to 0.81 percent. The population of Jains and Parsis declined, with the later witnessing an 85 percent dip.

PFI said that according to the Census of India, the decadal growth rate for Muslim has been declining over the past three decades. Specially, the decadal growth rate for Muslims decreased from 32.9% in 1981—1991 to 24.6% in 2001-2011. Thia decline is more pronounced than that of Hindus, whose growth rate fell from 22.7% to 16.8% over the same period. The census data is available from 1951 to 2011 and is quite similar to the data in this study, indicating that these numbers are not new.

The study’s focus on changes in the share of majority and minority religious groups globally over a 65 years period should not be used to incite fear and discrimination against any community. “The media’s selective portrayal of data to highlight the increase in the Muslim population is an example of misrepresentation that ignores broader demographic trends,” said Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director, Population Foundation of India.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is declining in all Religious Groups

As per the press statement issued by the PFI, the Total Fertility Rate among all religious groups is declining. The highest decrease in TFR from 2005-06 to 2019-21 was observed among Muslims, which dropped by 1 percentage point, followed by Hindus at 0.7 percentage points. This data underscores that the fertility rates are converging across different religious communities.

Fertility rates are closely linked to education and income levels, not religion. States with better access to education, healthcare, and socioeconomic development, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, exhibit lower TFRs across all religious groups. For Example, the TFR among Muslim women in Kerala (2.25) is lower than the TFR among Hindu women in Bihar (2.88).

The Population Foundation of India urges that India needs to invest in women and young people to reap demographic and gender dividends. Additionally, it will need to prepare for an aging population in the future, which could yield a silver dividend. We advocates for policies that promote inclusive development and gender equity to ensure a balanced and harmonious society.

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Representational image. Photo credit: Reuters

The biases and misconceptions about conversions and population growth have been used by communal forces to divide the society. This became apparent once again when Minister of state of Home, Kiren Rijuju tweeted that that Hindu population is decreasing in the country as Hindus don't convert and that minorities in India are flourishing unlike in the neighbouring countries.

Threat of decline in Hindu population and increase in population of minorities is being propagated time and over again. As per the data of 2011 census figures, Hindu population now stands at 79.8 % and Muslim population at 14.23%. “The data on Population by Religious Communities of Census 2011 show that between 2001 and 2011, Hindu population grew by 16.76 per cent, while that of Muslims by 24.6 per cent. The population of both communities grew faster during the previous decade, at 19.92 per cent and 29.52 per cent, respectively. As a long-term trend, say demographers, the communities’ growth rates are converging.” This means that the decadal rates of growth of both communities is declining and converging closer to each other.

This is pointer to the fact that while charting out the future projections it is important to keep in mind that the rate of growth of Muslim population will be falling and will stabilise closer to that of rate of rise Hindu population. In the total population Muslims will remain a religious minority for the times to come. Interestingly, the population increase of Hindus during the period of 2001 to 2011 has been 133 millions, which is close to the total population of Muslims in 2001. The scare being spread through word of mouth campaign and through social media about Muslim population taking over the Hindu population holds no water, as there are clear trends of decline in the decadal rate of growth of Muslim population as well.

The demographers point out that the higher rates of fertility are due to lack of education and poor health facilities. Muslims in Kerala have a lower fertility rate than many Hindu communities in North India and even in Kerala. The economic profile of Kerala Muslims is much different than the Muslims in Assam, West Bengal, UP and Maharashtra for example. If we broaden this point we will see that the rise in population among Dalits (Schedule castes) and Adivasis (Scheduled Tribes) is much higher as such . As per the 2011 census STs are 8.6% while they were 6.23 % according to 1951 census. SCs now are 16.6%, while as per 1951 they were around 15%.

As such the whole truth will show us that the propaganda of communal forces has nothing to do with reality of society and deeper causes of the same. It is in this background that the likes of Praveen Togadia who said that two child norm should be imposed, while the likes of Sakshi Maharaj and Sadhvi Prachi have been extolling the Hindus to produce more children.

BJP president Amit Shah has given the 'Look North East' call to raise the scare about the Christian population in the North East. This primarily tribal area saw an increase in percentage of Christians in the decades of 1931-1951. The rise in percentage of Christian population has a lot to do with the spread of civil administration with Independence and also with the spread of education in the region. Countrywide we can see that the percentage of Christians has been static over the last few decades.

If at all, it has declined and stabilised. If we see from 1971, we see that Christian population was 2.60% (1971), 2.44 (1981), 2.34 (1991), 2.30 (2001) and 2.30 (2011).

In the meanwhile the propaganda of missionary activities and increase in the number of Christians has dominated the scene. Anti-Christian violence came to public attention with the ghastly murder of Graham Stewarts Staines (1999). Dara Singh of Bajrang Dal, which is affiliated to RSS, incited the local people that the pastor is doing conversions which is against Hindus.

Wadhwa Commission which investigated pastor Staines murder concluded that he was not involved in conversions and that in Keonjhar, Manoharpur Orrisa where the pastor was working, there was no increase in the percentage of Christian population.

Similarly Kandhmal anti-Christian violence was unleashed on the pretext of murder of Swami Laxmananand. Gujarat also saw anti-Christian activities again due to propaganda that the missionaries are converting. At the same time we see that the national population of Christians remains static. Some people do allege that conversions to Christianity are there but the converts are hiding their religion, this is again a matter of conjuncture and nothing definite can be said. Any way it cannot be a large number in any case.

As such conversions have been a part of the agenda of Hindu nationalism times and over again. During freedom movement two parallel processes of conversions were going on. One was Tanzeem, which was to convert people to Islam, the other was Shuddhi which was aimed at those who were supposed to have left their 'religion-home' and were converted to alien religions.

The premise was that conversion to other religions has made them impure so they need to be brought back through a process of purification. Last several decades RSS-VHP-Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram have been active in what is called Ghar Wapasi (returning home) to bring back the Dalits and adivasis who it is alleged have been converted through force (to Islam) and allurement or fraud (to Christianity). This Ghar Wapasi campaign has been undertaken through many newly devised rituals like bath in hot spring or rituals around fire. This has been rampant inAdivasi areasand in slums-villages.

Adivasis are animists, while RSS claims they are Hindus. To Hinduise them Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram now runs a growing network of schools and hostels in large numbers in North East. Such assertions and accompanying activities have more to with politics rather than social welfare as such. The attempt of RSS combine is to link religion with nationalism.

(This story was also published on People's Voice).

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